making better decisions

Making Decisions Based On Best Information

I planted some frost-sensitive plants
in the garden this weekend.

According to the weather forecast,
there should be zero chances
of frost
over the next two weeks.

That forecast could be wrong, however.
It IS a forecast,
not an absolute.

But I had to make a decision
and it is the best information
I have at this time.

We all have to make decisions
for our businesses
based on the best information
we currently have.

That information could also
be wrong.
And we’ll have to
hastily make some corrections.

That’s part of building a business.

There are no absolutes.

Make the best decisions you can
based on the best information
you currently have.

And move forward.

Pay Attention To Trendlines

Two days ago,
a buddy told me
the high temperatures
for yesterday,
according to a certain
weather forecast site,
would be X degrees.

I told her
it would be X + Y degrees.

It WAS
X + Y degrees
and she asked me
how I knew that.

I knew that
because
that site’s
forecast model has been
Y degrees too low
for the past year.

Trendlines matter.
They matter
when hosting an outdoor activity,
when planning for a sales promotion,
when keeping our loved ones safe
from the multiple pandemics
happening right now.

Figure them out
BEFORE you truly need
to rely on them.

Pay attention to trendlines.

The Trend Is Our Friend

The trend might not always
be positive
but knowing that trend
IS our friend.

I see the downward trajectory
of my romance novel sales.
That is negative.
But knowing that trend
means I can prepare for the future.
It means I can wrap up
that business well.

As another example,
I see the downward trajectory
of rain and snow
in my area
and across the world.
That’s negative
for all of us.
But knowing that trend
means I can prepare for the future.
It means I can install solar power
to deal with
the decrease in
hydro-sourced electricity.

Knowing trends
will always benefit you.
Even or ESPECIALLY
if that trend is negative.

The Reason Why

Before partnering with someone,
I like to ask them
to tell me
what I should know about them.

They usually tell me
how they helped another person
they partnered with.

I then ask them
WHY they made the decisions
they made.

THAT, I find,
is more telling
than the fact that they made
the right decision
for that partner
at that time.

It is unlikely
I’ll be in the exact same situation.

I prefer to know
what their decision making process
is
ALL the time.

If the perspective partner
doesn’t have an answer
for that why question,
it is likely their decision
was merely a lucky guess.

Lucky guesses are rarely duplicated.

Ask why.

Make Decisions Based On Reality

I told a COVID-safe buddy
that I bought
another personal air purifier
to take with me
when I eat in restaurants
or attend events.

She told me
if the restaurants improved
their ventilation,
I wouldn’t need that air purifier.

Sure, but that isn’t reality.
I have to make decisions
based on reality,
not the best case scenario.

Right now,
I suspect we all want to base
a decision
on a best case scenario.
(I am definitely included in this.)

Like…

Everyone who bought
product 1
will buy product 2.

One of our posts
will go viral
and thousands of people
will discover our business.

That big problem with our product
will no longer be seen
as a problem
with prospects and customers.

These best case scenarios
COULD happen.
I could also win the lottery
tomorrow.

But the odds are against that.

Base your decision making
on reality.

Messing With Systems

The planet has designed
systems that have allowed it
to flourish.

One small slice of an example,
vegetation feeds on nutrients
in the soil
to grow.
When that vegetation dies,
those nutrients return
to the soil.
And that allows more vegetation to grow.
This cycle repeats forever.

When we f*ck with that system,
the system tends to break.

In this example,
we mess with it by
bagging our grass clippings
instead of leaving them on the lawn
when we mow.
Then we send those grass clippings
off site.

Those nutrients no longer
return to the soil.
They aren’t available
for the grass to use.
The grass dies,
basically,
of starvation.

And we wonder why
our lawns look ragged.

One of the first things
many new entrepreneurs want to do
is break or change
the system.

Before you do that,
know WHY that system
is in place
and how it functions.

Learn what
the consequences will be
if you change or break
that system
BEFORE you do that.

Think it through
before making the decision
to break the system.

Status Symbols And Return On Investment

Some people were surprised
when I mentioned yesterday
we drive an older car.

They shouldn’t be surprised.

Older cars often
provide the best
return on investment.

Status symbols
like new luxury cars,
in contrast,
often give a terrible
return on investment.

I don’t need
to impress clients or customers
or anyone else
with my car.

I value safety
and return on investment.

Status symbols often
give a terrible
return on investment.

Factor that into
your decision making.

You Will Never Fit In

You and I are business builders.
That alone makes us rare.
It makes us different.

We don’t think
like everyone else.

We see, for example,
opportunities everywhere.
Other people don’t.

We will never truly
fit in.
We’ll always be
a little bit strange,
a little bit dangerous.

So don’t factor
you
‘fitting in’
into your decision making
for your business.

Make the right decision,
not the most popular one.

They Don’t Make X Like They Used To

Once I hear an expert
say
“They don’t make
[music or movies
or cars or other products]
like they used to”,
I no longer take their advice.

I continue
to listen to their thoughts
about history.
A knowledge of history
leads to better decision making.

But I discard
their thoughts on the present
and on the future.

Because they don’t understand
how the world has changed
and why entertainment
and products have changed
around them.

That expert isn’t living
in today’s world.
They’re living in the past.

I don’t need advice
about the past.

Ensure you’re listening to
advisors
who understand today,
not merely yesterday.

A Small Business Owner’s Risk Is Not Everyone’s Risk

I was chatting with
an online buddy
and she told me
she insists every customer
entering her store
wears a mask
because she can’t afford to get sick.

She is a small business owner.
If she’s ill,
her income drops to next to nothing.
She doesn’t have paid sick leave.
She doesn’t have insurance
to cover her illness.
She is on her own.

The calculation of risk
for us,
for business builders,
is significantly different
than the calculation of risk
for other people.

We can’t afford to do
things other people do,
like run around unmasked,
not have an alternative power supply,
etc.

Factor that
into your decision making.