Pay Attention To Trendlines

Two days ago,
a buddy told me
the high temperatures
for yesterday,
according to a certain
weather forecast site,
would be X degrees.

I told her
it would be X + Y degrees.

It WAS
X + Y degrees
and she asked me
how I knew that.

I knew that
because
that site’s
forecast model has been
Y degrees too low
for the past year.

Trendlines matter.
They matter
when hosting an outdoor activity,
when planning for a sales promotion,
when keeping our loved ones safe
from the multiple pandemics
happening right now.

Figure them out
BEFORE you truly need
to rely on them.

Pay attention to trendlines.

Learn From Other Industries And Regions

Part of being a business builder
is trying to predict
the challenges and opportunities
our businesses will eventually face.

This is one of the reasons
I talk about climate change
here.

We should be building
our businesses
to survive and THRIVE
in the future.

And there WILL be businesses
thriving
while the climate changes.

One of the things
I do to predict
the future
is look at other industries
and at other countries.

China, for example,
usually has weather
similar
to where I am currently located.

They are experiencing severe drought.
That drought has led to
electricity shortages.
Businesses are being forced
to temporarily close.

I can’t run ANY of my businesses
without electricity.
During a drought,
while food and water prices
sky rocket,
I would likely be forced
to close my businesses too.
I wouldn’t derive any income
from them.

Which is why
I’m investing in solar.
My businesses need
a source of power
that will still be available
during times of drought.
Solar would hopefully
fulfil this need.

I’m not suggesting
you invest in solar.
Your coordinates are different
from mine.
Your comparable regions
will be different also.

I’m suggesting
you stay aware
of challenges and opportunities
in similar regions,
similar industries,
and factor those possibilities
into your plan.

Use other regions
and industries
in your predictions
for your business’ future.

Predicting The Future

When I was young,
I would read my horoscope
every day.
And every day,
it would usually come true.

Because horoscopes contain
universal truths
and general predictions.
We then look for results
that will prove the predictions to be true.

“Don’t believe everything you hear today.”
You shouldn’t believe everything you hear
on ANY day.

“You will have good luck today.”
Every day we’re alive
is a fortunate day.

As Seth Godin
shares

“Voices that purport
to know the future
–whether they are psychics, astrologers,
family or the noise in our head–
are pretty effective
when it’s vague enough,
but terrible
when it comes to specifics.
That’s because when it’s vague,
we complete the story on our own,
creating our own fact patterns
after things happen.”

Scientists knew, for example, there would be
another pandemic.
They were certain about that vague prediction.

They didn’t know it would happen
in 2019.
They couldn’t predict
that specific detail.

Remember that when listening to
predictions for that future.
The more specific the prediction is,
the less likely it is
to come true.