the pandemic – client k

How To Pay Attention

Yesterday, I talked about
how we all should
know the signs of failure,
watch for them,
and
then act on them.

There are millions
of points of failure.

Who has the excess time
to monitor all of them?

I certainly don’t
have this spare time.

What I do
is I monitor people
monitoring the possible points
of failure.

I’ll follow experts
on my industry
or climate change
or fascism
or business.

Every week or so,
I’ll scan their feeds.

And that usually gives me a sense
of what might happen soon.

Track the social media posts
of the people
monitoring failure.

That should keep you
adequately informed.

Take Action

The world has some challenges
right now.
There is at least one
major pandemic happening.
There’s climate change.
There are wars brewing.

This causes stress.
And stress isn’t good
for any of us.

I’m a doer.
Doers…well…
we do.

Taking action
relieves stress
for me.

It doesn’t have
to be big action.
I pick worms off pavement
and put them on the grass
after the rain.
I let my dandelions grow
and feed the bees.
I wear a mask
while in indoor public places.
I stay home
when I’m feeling ill.

I do little things.
But the important part
for me
and for my stress levels
is…
I DO things.

Take action
if you’re stressed
about the state
of the world.

A Lot Of People Experience This

An online friend
had black hairy tongue.

She was told
that ‘a lot of people’
get it after a COVID infection.

What she WASN’T told
was ‘a lot of people’
had died
after having those symptoms.

She brushed off
the advice to go
to the hospital.

And she died within a week.
(Mask up, friends.
This d@mn pandemic
isn’t over.)

Hearing ‘a lot of people’
or
‘a lot of businesses’
experience something
doesn’t mean
it ends well for
those people/businesses.

All it means
is there is likely
a lot of research
already completed on
your experience.

Study that research.
Take your situation
seriously.
And please mask
the f*ck up.

Development Schedules Post COVID

I’ve had one bout of COVID
and it changed my brain.

I saw that immediately
in my writing.
I’d read the previous story
and the story I’m currently writing
and it appeared like
they were written by
two different writers.

They were both great stories.
They merely had different voices,
different styles of writing.

It took me
33% percent longer
(in my case,
an additional month)
to ensure the new story
matched
the older stories.

Because readers
(customers)
would be unhappy
if it didn’t match.

If the people involved
in your product’s development
had COVID,
they don’t have the same brains
they had prior to COVID,
and if they don’t have the same brains,
your final product
is unlikely to be as expected.

Add some room
in the product development schedule
for a quality
or continuity check.

Why You Need Online Sales

Having a bricks and mortar
retail store
is super sexy.

We can point to it
and tell loved ones,
“I own that.”
We can wander the aisles
and talk face-to-face
with customers.

I get it.
It is a dream
of many business builders.

But, if you sell products,
I strongly suggest
you have a venue
to sell them online
also.

Why?

Because online venues
are a hedge
against pandemics,
natural disasters,
construction,
and anything else
that stops customers
from visiting our physical stores.

Right now,
my corner of the world
is being severely hit
by RSV, the flu,
AND COVID
all at the same time.

Sick people
(and people trying to avoid
illness)
tend to switch
from shopping
at their favorite physical stores
to shopping online.

It would be great
for them
AND for you,
if they could continue
buying from you.

Offer an online shopping experience
and
keep those customers.

System Breakdowns Aren’t Linear

I’ve witnessed
many system breakdowns
of various kinds.
I’ve studied
thousands more system breakdowns.

I’ve never encountered
one that was linear.

Linear system breakdowns
are only seen on models.

It is d@mn difficult
to model
cascading system breakdowns.
It is nearly impossible,
at this point of time,
to show how a failure
in one part
of the system
will cause multiple failures
in other parts
of the system
and how these failures
will compound
until the entire system
collapses.

Most models don’t have
the complexity
to reflect that reality.

So we model linear
which is easy to do
and easy for people
to understand.

But that’s not reality.
Collapse will be faster,
more complex,
impacting more of
the system.

Remember that
when we see modeling
for pandemics,
climate change,
economics.

Linear models
are best case scenarios
and they aren’t reality.

System breakdowns
cascade.

Reliable Data

There is SO much misinformation
floating around
that it is challenging
to find reliable data
with which
we can make business decisions.

I try my best
to look at data
that can’t be f*cked with
or manipulated.

For example,
if we’re looking at COVID numbers,
almost all of those stats
can be manipulated.
Infection numbers
are WAY f*ckin’ low
because many people are testing
in their homes.
ICU numbers
are also sh*t
because a lot of COVID cases
aren’t being counted
as COVID cases.
Even COVID death numbers
are sh*t
for the same reason.

The number that can’t be
f*cked with
(as much)
is…
Excess Deaths,
how many more deaths
per capita
we are enduring today
vs the average/a point in the past.

Our own data is also
semi-reliable
for decision making.

The government
(who wants to be re-elected)
can tell me
inflation is only X%
but if I look at
my expenses/cost of sales
and see
THAT increase is 2X%,
I will be using MY number
in my decision making.

Take the time
to ensure the data
you’re using
for decision making
is reliable.

Calling Someone A Doomist

The current trend
is to call anyone
who isn’t 100% optimistic
about the future
a ‘doomist.’

The danger to this
is
it shuts down conversation.
It prevents us
from hearing about
not-as-happy situations
and preparing for them.
It stops others
from warning us,
from talking honestly
with us.

And that will cause us
pain
…eventually.

The future isn’t
all sunshine and roses.
Heck, the past wasn’t
happy all the time.

There were
plenty of opportunities
then
and there will be
plenty of opportunities
in the future.

But we won’t be able
to fully take advantage
of these opportunities
unless we know about
and
avoid or minimize
the challenges.

Don’t EVER call
anyone
a doomist.

Tell Them Who Is Calling

Buddies tease me
because,
when I call them
on the phone,
I start with
“Hi (X)! This is (K).”

I do this
because I’m humble enough
not to expect them
to guess who I am
using my voice alone
(if they don’t have
caller ID,
and many lower income people
don’t have it
on their landlines).

I also do this
because it saves other people
the additional mental work
of trying to figure out
who is calling.

People are overloaded
with mental AND physical work
right now.

They’re still dealing with
the fallout of the pandemic.
They’re dealing with
the increasing impacts
of climate change.
They are likely understaffed
and overworked.
They have other worries.

They shouldn’t have to worry
about figuring out
who is calling them.

Extend them some grace.
Tell people
who you are
when you call them.
Don’t make them guess.