how to make better decisions

Preventing Emotional Decisions

A reader told me
I’d sell a lot more books
if I had my books
in X format.

I need an increase
in sales
if I want to keep
the romance novel business
alive.

And my first impulse
was to do what she advised.

I talked to a loved one.
He reminded me
of all the reasons
why I don’t offer X format.

I then quashed my impulse
to offer X format now.

We’re human.
We have emotions.
And sometimes our emotions
f*ck up our lives
by pushing us
into making terrible decisions.

Choose someone
to approach
when your emotions threaten
to take control.

Choose that person now.
When your emotions
AREN’T in control.

This person should be
the voice of reason.
They shouldn’t be easily swayed
by you and your convincing arguments.
They should have the ability
to repeat all your great reasons
back to you.

Designate someone
to approach
when your emotions threaten
to take over.

The Joke That Isn’t A Joke

A buddy entered into negotiations
with a venture capitalist.

The venture capitalist
said
during those negotiations,
“What do you think
I’m going to do
– push you out of your own company?”

He then laughed
and said that was a joke.

Years later,
the venture capitalist
pushed my buddy
out of his own company.

Most people monitor
what they say.

So when people say
bad things out loud,
know that is usually
what they’re truly thinking
and
that’s how
their mind works.

ESPECIALLY
if they claim
it was a ‘joke.’

When people say
bad things out loud,
believe they’re capable
of those bad things
and proceed with caution.

The Time Frame For Reliable Predictions

A meteorologist buddy confided that,
due to climate change,
he now can’t reliably predict weather
past 1 or 2 days.

He still supplies 7 day forecasts
because his employer
and the average person
demands it.

But the forecasts
for 5 or 6 days out of those 7
are wild guesses
and are likely to be wrong.

I can predict my book sales
semi-accurately
for the next 3 months.

Anything after that,
due to turmoil
and change in the industry,
is a wild guess.

Know how far in advance
you can semi-accurately predict
results.

Take that time frame
into account
when making decisions.

Know The Odds

I recently took a cruise
with a loved one.
We masked in public
when not eating
and asked
for socially distanced tables
during meal times.

Why did we take these precautions?

Because I researched
and laid out the odds
of events happening
before we embarked.

The odds of COVID
being on board
were 100%.

The odds of being exposed
to COVID on board
were also 100%.

The odds of deriving long COVID
if we were infected
were 1 in 8.

If we looked at the odds,
we would be dumb a$$es
not to mask.

We masked.
COVID, as predicted,
raged through the ship.
People around us became sick.
We didn’t get COVID.

(And yes,
I know luck was also
a big factor in that.)

Know the odds
of events happening
before you make decisions.

It might not change
your decision
but, at the very least,
you can prepare
for high probability events
to happen.