Influencers Aren’t Experts

As traditional media
is now controlled by the billionaires,
I follow experts
on social media
to hear the truth
about what the f*ck is going on
and to make better decisions.

Influencers aren’t experts
(in anything other than
being influencers).

Influencers have
large followings
because they tell people
what they want to hear.

They tell people,
for example,
the pandemic is over
and they don’t have to mask.

They tell people,
as another example,
climate change is reversible
and they don’t have to
change their lifestyles at all.

Experts tend to have
much smaller followings
because they tell people
the brutal truth.

They tell people
the pandemic is far from over,
people are dying every day from COVID,
there are other much more severe pandemics
on the horizon
and everyone who values their brain
and their health
should mask.

They tell people
climate change will increase exponentially
in intensity,
that this was the hottest year
in history
yet will be the coldest year
when compared to the future,
and we have to change
almost everything about our lifestyles
to survive that future.

No one wants to hear that sh*t.

I definitely don’t want to hear it.

Yet I force myself to listen
because it impacts my business
and my own survival.

Very few people will do the same, however.

True experts don’t gain
large followings.

Influencers aren’t experts.

Reach out to influencers
for marketing help.
They’re brilliant at that.

But ignore what they have to say
about other issues.

Making Decisions After A Life-Changing Event

A buddy got laid off
from the company
she’d been employed at
for over 15 years.

She told me
the day after that announcement
she was starting a business.

Had she been working on
starting this business
before being laid off?

No.
Not at all.

But it is a dream of hers.

Dreams are great.
Starting a business is great.

Making decisions
immediately after
a life-changing event
is not great.

No one thinks clearly then.
There’s panic and grief and anger.
All these emotions can cloud
decision making.

Wait
for a week
after major life-changes,
if you can,
before making any big decisions.

Hiding The Problem

Governments are, right now,
hiding the true impact
of Bird Flu.

I suspect they are hoping
it will go away
and they won’t have
to make tough leadership decisions.

What it is truly doing
is making the Bird Flu situation
much, MUCH worse.

They aren’t giving scientists
the data
for them to manage it,
stop it,
cure it.

Right now,
I suspect you have a problem
you’re tempted to hide.

I certainly have a problem
like that.

Hiding the problem
will likely make it worse.

Share your problem
with people or entities
that can help you
address it.

That’s the best way
to make it go away.

Preventing Emotional Decisions

A reader told me
I’d sell a lot more books
if I had my books
in X format.

I need an increase
in sales
if I want to keep
the romance novel business
alive.

And my first impulse
was to do what she advised.

I talked to a loved one.
He reminded me
of all the reasons
why I don’t offer X format.

I then quashed my impulse
to offer X format now.

We’re human.
We have emotions.
And sometimes our emotions
f*ck up our lives
by pushing us
into making terrible decisions.

Choose someone
to approach
when your emotions threaten
to take control.

Choose that person now.
When your emotions
AREN’T in control.

This person should be
the voice of reason.
They shouldn’t be easily swayed
by you and your convincing arguments.
They should have the ability
to repeat all your great reasons
back to you.

Designate someone
to approach
when your emotions threaten
to take over.

The Joke That Isn’t A Joke

A buddy entered into negotiations
with a venture capitalist.

The venture capitalist
said
during those negotiations,
“What do you think
I’m going to do
– push you out of your own company?”

He then laughed
and said that was a joke.

Years later,
the venture capitalist
pushed my buddy
out of his own company.

Most people monitor
what they say.

So when people say
bad things out loud,
know that is usually
what they’re truly thinking
and
that’s how
their mind works.

ESPECIALLY
if they claim
it was a ‘joke.’

When people say
bad things out loud,
believe they’re capable
of those bad things
and proceed with caution.

The Time Frame For Reliable Predictions

A meteorologist buddy confided that,
due to climate change,
he now can’t reliably predict weather
past 1 or 2 days.

He still supplies 7 day forecasts
because his employer
and the average person
demands it.

But the forecasts
for 5 or 6 days out of those 7
are wild guesses
and are likely to be wrong.

I can predict my book sales
semi-accurately
for the next 3 months.

Anything after that,
due to turmoil
and change in the industry,
is a wild guess.

Know how far in advance
you can semi-accurately predict
results.

Take that time frame
into account
when making decisions.

Know The Odds

I recently took a cruise
with a loved one.
We masked in public
when not eating
and asked
for socially distanced tables
during meal times.

Why did we take these precautions?

Because I researched
and laid out the odds
of events happening
before we embarked.

The odds of COVID
being on board
were 100%.

The odds of being exposed
to COVID on board
were also 100%.

The odds of deriving long COVID
if we were infected
were 1 in 8.

If we looked at the odds,
we would be dumb a$$es
not to mask.

We masked.
COVID, as predicted,
raged through the ship.
People around us became sick.
We didn’t get COVID.

(And yes,
I know luck was also
a big factor in that.)

Know the odds
of events happening
before you make decisions.

It might not change
your decision
but, at the very least,
you can prepare
for high probability events
to happen.