Tag: calculating the odds

Being The Exception

The eggplants were outgrowing
the cages placed around them.

A loved one suggested
I simply take off the cages.
The eggplants should be
large enough
to fend for themselves.

I was tempted to do that.
Replacing the cages
with larger ones
was work
and required more chicken wire.

Maybe the squirrels and rabbits
wouldn’t target the eggplants
this time.
Maybe this time
would be the exception.

You and I both know
that exceptions are…
well…exceptional.
They rarely occur.

I replaced the cages.

Don’t bet
your entire business
on being the exception.

Long shot bets rarely pay off.

Know The Odds

I recently took a cruise
with a loved one.
We masked in public
when not eating
and asked
for socially distanced tables
during meal times.

Why did we take these precautions?

Because I researched
and laid out the odds
of events happening
before we embarked.

The odds of COVID
being on board
were 100%.

The odds of being exposed
to COVID on board
were also 100%.

The odds of deriving long COVID
if we were infected
were 1 in 8.

If we looked at the odds,
we would be dumb a$$es
not to mask.

We masked.
COVID, as predicted,
raged through the ship.
People around us became sick.
We didn’t get COVID.

(And yes,
I know luck was also
a big factor in that.)

Know the odds
of events happening
before you make decisions.

It might not change
your decision
but, at the very least,
you can prepare
for high probability events
to happen.