New Business Development – Page 42

Does Your Model Still Work?

Weather prediction models
are based on a stable jet stream.

The jet stream
is no longer stable.

And the weather prediction models
no longer work
for any predictions longer
than a day out.

I suspect
we are all basing decisions
on models
that no longer work
in today’s world.

I know I am.

In the past,
as one example,
if readers downloaded
one of my free books,
11% of them
would read the entire series.

I built my rate of return on promotions model
around that read-through
(sell-through)
number.

But that read-through number
is no longer applicable.
Very few readers
now read the entire series.

When I modified
my rate of return on promotions models
and applied the new
read-through number
(plus some other factors),
none of the promotions
I was considering
made a return.

Do your models
still work?

Knowing When To Close A Business

I plan to close
my romance novel writing business
when
the pre-order sales
for my stories
no longer cover their production expenses.

Based on the current
downward sales trajectory,
that will happen
in roughly three years.

I’m planning for that closure.

I’m writing the books
readers have requested.
I’m wrapping up series.
I’m setting up income streams
so they continue
without much involvement
from me.

If something unexpected happens
and my sales recover,
of course,
I’ll continue the business.

But, as of today,
I am planning to close it

Knowing I’m ending this stage
of my life
is sad
but it is also powerful.
I’m in control
of my business’ closure,
of the process.
It will be a good end
to a great business life cycle.

Decide now
when you’ll close/sell your business.

Build toward that closure.
And embrace
the fresh new start
that will follow it.

Unwanted Improvements

For decades,
people have justified
fireworks
by saying they love
the show they give us.

Now, we have drone displays
which can provide
even more magnificent shows,
but without the danger
or the loud booms.

This has forced people
to admit
the danger,
the loud booms,
the blowing up of sh*t
was a big part
of the appeal of fireworks.

They don’t want
safer
or quieter
or less destructive.

Ensure the ‘improvements’
you’re building
into your products/services
are truly desired.

Less destructive,
for some products,
isn’t necessarily better.

Get A Good Office Chair

Many of us
are bootstrapping our businesses.
We’re trying to make
our funds
stretch as far as we can.

I get that.

But spend a little extra
and get a good office chair.

It doesn’t have to be new.
There are plenty of used office chairs
on the market.

But it should be a good chair,
a chair that supports your body
and ensures
you don’t damage yourself
while working those long hours
starting your business.

We need to remain
healthy.
We have businesses to build.

Get a good office chair.

How Others Respond

AI-produced books
have taken over
the lists
at booksellers.

Booksellers might do something
to curb this.

Or they might not.

I, as a writer,
can’t control
what the booksellers’ responses will be.

I can share my thoughts
and suggestions with them
but I can’t force them
to take action.

I CAN craft
a plan
that assumes
no action will be taken.

In this case,
I’m no longer
depending on
the bookseller lists
to find new readers (customers).

We can’t control
what our partners will do.

We can try to influence
their responses
but we can’t completely
control them.

Assume they won’t respond
and craft a possible plan
around that.

Go Outside If You Can

If the weather
and air quality allows it,
go outside
for a few minutes.

Find a patch of green.
Look at a plant.
And the sky.
And the ground.

Focus.
Pay attention.
Notice details
like the veins on a leaf
or the shape of the clouds
or the moistness of the soil
under your shoes.

Forget everything else
for a moment.
And absorb your surroundings.

Once you’re relaxed,
go back inside
and get back to work.

You NEED this break.
You don’t think you do
right now
but you need it.

Take it for yourself
and for the business
you’re building.

Remember Your True Goals

My bell pepper plants
are being decimated
by slugs.

When this started happening,
I almost sprayed
the plants
with poison.
This would have killed
the slugs.

Which would have
also killed
one of my true goals
for the garden
– to provide ‘food’
for insects
and other tiny wildlife
…like slugs.

Sometimes we get so focused
on intermediate goals
we lose sight
of our true end goal.

We focus
so much,
for example,
on going viral
on social media
that we post things
that wouldn’t interest
or,
worse,
upset
prospects
for our products.

Review your true goals
regularly.
Ensure your actions
move you
closer to achieving them.

Working With Our Flaws

Yesterday, I talked about
how humans are flawed.

We’re humans.
That means
we’re flawed also.

And that’s okay.
Flaws make us special.

But we should recognize
what our flaws are
and we should work WITH them,
not against them.

I don’t like
doing the same tasks
over and over,
for example.

I went to university for accounting.

Yes, ouch.
The expected accounting role
consists of doing the same tasks
over and over.

We complete month end
in June
and there is another month end
in July
and
in August
and…

I hated that typical accounting role.
And because I hated it,
I didn’t excel in it.

I was fighting one of my ‘flaws’
and f*ck, it WAS a battle.

Then I discovered project management
and wow,
that role was easy for me.

Projects end!
I can complete them.

And each project is usually different.

My ‘flaws’ became strengths.
I’m now working WITH my nature,
not against it.
And I’ve found great success
in project management.

Accept your flaws
and your differences.
Success will come
much easier
when you work WITH your unique nature.

Human Nature Is Flawed And We Should Recognize That

I’m a hopeful person.

I think we have to be
hopeful people
to build businesses.

We hope there will be
customers
for our products/services
when we bring them to market.

But I don’t
pretend human nature
is anything other
than what it is.

I know, for example,
that while
people SHOULD boycott
books that are written
by AI,
the majority of people
WON’T.

The average person doesn’t care
who ‘writes’ the books
they buy.
And they don’t care
about the future of books.

They only care about the product.
They only care about themselves
and their enjoyment of that product.

That’s human nature.
We are selfish.

Knowing human nature,
accepting our flaws,
saves time and effort
and it focuses us on solutions
that have a better chance
of being successful.

Returning to my example,
writers shouldn’t waste time and effort
trying to convince
readers to boycott AI.

They should, instead, focus their energies
on deriving
solutions that have a better chance
of being successful.

Accept humans
for who we truly are,
flaws and everything else,
and make better decisions.

The Time Frame For Reliable Predictions

A meteorologist buddy confided that,
due to climate change,
he now can’t reliably predict weather
past 1 or 2 days.

He still supplies 7 day forecasts
because his employer
and the average person
demands it.

But the forecasts
for 5 or 6 days out of those 7
are wild guesses
and are likely to be wrong.

I can predict my book sales
semi-accurately
for the next 3 months.

Anything after that,
due to turmoil
and change in the industry,
is a wild guess.

Know how far in advance
you can semi-accurately predict
results.

Take that time frame
into account
when making decisions.