Weather prediction models
are based on a stable jet stream.
The jet stream
is no longer stable.
And the weather prediction models
no longer work
for any predictions longer
than a day out.
I suspect
we are all basing decisions
on models
that no longer work
in today’s world.
I know I am.
In the past,
as one example,
if readers downloaded
one of my free books,
11% of them
would read the entire series.
I built my rate of return on promotions model
around that read-through
(sell-through)
number.
But that read-through number
is no longer applicable.
Very few readers
now read the entire series.
When I modified
my rate of return on promotions models
and applied the new
read-through number
(plus some other factors),
none of the promotions
I was considering
made a return.
Do your models
still work?