The Time Frame For Reliable Predictions

A meteorologist buddy confided that,
due to climate change,
he now can’t reliably predict weather
past 1 or 2 days.

He still supplies 7 day forecasts
because his employer
and the average person
demands it.

But the forecasts
for 5 or 6 days out of those 7
are wild guesses
and are likely to be wrong.

I can predict my book sales
semi-accurately
for the next 3 months.

Anything after that,
due to turmoil
and change in the industry,
is a wild guess.

Know how far in advance
you can semi-accurately predict
results.

Take that time frame
into account
when making decisions.

Evaluate Your Experts

We all have experts
we tend to trust
to give us accurate information.
We base our decisions
in business
and other aspects of life
on the things
they tell us.

At least once a year,
I evaluate these experts.
I look at their predictions
and I compare those predictions
to what actually happened.

There are health experts,
for example,
who predict
every COVID wave
will be the last one.

They’ve been wrong
again and again.

I no longer
rely on them
for information.

Evaluate your experts.
If they have always
been wrong,
assume they will be wrong
again.

Find better experts.