Hurricane Matthew could have been
much more deadly
than it was,
especially for Florida.
All the experts
were saying it would be.
It was sheer luck
that it wasn’t.
Many residents didn’t evacuate,
deeming to wait out the storm.
They now believe
they’re more intelligent
than the experts.
They will likely use this hurricane
to guide their actions
during the next one.
They weren’t intelligent.
They were lucky.
They beat the odds.
One of these days
they won’t be lucky.
The experts will be right.
And these second guessers
will be dead.
I see this happen in business also.
An entrepreneur beats the odds.
She gets lucky,
thinks this proves the experts wrong,
assumes it is her superior intelligence
and not a fluke guiding her results.
She counts on this luck
happening again.
It doesn’t.
If your results are the exception,
luck likely had a big part
in your success.
Unless you can duplicate the results,
be cautious about basing your decision
on this one result.