James Surowiecki
in the New Yorker
shares
“It’s true that,
between 2009 and 2011,
e-book sales rose
at triple-digit annual rates.
But last year,
according to industry trade groups,
e-book sales rose just forty-four per cent.”
This slowing growth rate is natural.
If in year 1, sales were 0 units
and in year 2, sales were 1 unit,
that’s an infinite increase.
If in year 3, sales were 2 units,
that’s only a 100% increase over year 2.
The unit increase was the same.
The % growth is lower.
Does that make e-book any less of a threat?
No.
Of course not.
This article is filled with justifications
about why Barnes and Noble should ignore
the e-book threat.
There are dismissive comments like
“Against that,
the Codex Group finds that people of all ages
still prefer print for serious reading;
e-book sales are dominated by genre fiction
—“light reading.”
with no mention that one genre alone,
Romance,
consists of 16.7% of the U.S. consumer market.
This justification might make the people
at Barnes and Noble feel better
but it doesn’t eliminate the threat.
We all do this.
I was ignoring a certain threat
to my business,
hoping it would go away,
justifying why it wasn’t really a threat.
You’re ignoring a threat also.
Let’s accept these threats
and prepare for them.