The newest IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
report released this week.
The projections
(including, for example,
the expected increase
in global temperatures)
this report presents
are negotiated.
They are negotiated with politicians
who do NOT want bad news shared
during their terms at office.
They are negotiated with business leaders
who, again, do NOT want bad news shared
while they are in those leadership positions.
Most significantly,
they are negotiated with fossil fuel companies
who do NOT want to change
their business models.
At all.
The bad news in
the IPCC report findings,
as a result,
will be EXTREMELY muted.
I dealt with this challenge
when I crafted projections
for new business development opportunities.
I would be told
“We need X return
for this opportunity to be approved.”
I would then reply
that having a target return
is great
but the inputs and the model
would determine the projected return.
I could negotiate inputs,
which would be outlined
in my reports,
but I wouldn’t be negotiating
the projected return.
Because negotiated returns
aren’t based on anything.
They aren’t supported
by the inputs or the model.
If leaders want to
‘negotiate’ projections,
they can make up those projections
on their own.
They don’t need to involve
me
or thousands of scientists.
Negotiated projections
aren’t trustworthy projections.
They are merely goals.