Humans Lie

Friends and family members
told a new writer
they couldn’t wait
to buy her book.

Her book released.
NONE of them
bought her book.
NONE.

(She knew this
because she had zero sales
in that region.)

People lie.
They either tell us
what they think
we want to hear
or,
if they’re sh*tty people,
what they think
we don’t want to hear.

Try to base
your decisions
on what people do.

In my friend’s case,
do her friends and family members
already buy books
similar to hers?

If yes,
then they might buy hers.

Actions rarely lie.

Using The Past To Predict The Future

I often use
the past to help predict
the future.

I’ll look at past sales
for vampire romances, for example,
to help predict
how many sales
my vampire romance
might have.

In the past,
this prediction
was dang close.

Today?
It could be
business-flatteningly off.

The world has changed
significantly.

In the book world,
AI and COVID
has shifted the baselines.

But we are also in a new era
for climate
and pandemics
and politics
and almost everything else.

Being VERY cautious
when using the past
to predict the future.