Assume The Numbers Are Understated

When I was on
new product launch teams
at large corporations,
I would always be the person
who ran the financials.

The team leads
would ask me,
“What do the numbers say?”

And I would respond
with
“What do you WANT
the numbers to say?”

That wasn’t a joke.
All of the numbers,
including the actual results,
could be altered
to say
whatever we wanted them
to say.

So when I hear numbers now,
I always ask myself,
“What do the people
reporting these numbers
WANT
the numbers to say?”

No one reporting
the crisis infection
and death numbers
want those numbers
to be high.

No one.

Why?

Because high numbers
reflect
badly on the leader.

This leader
is conveniently also the person
responsible for the reporting
of the numbers.
There is no
truly impartial third party
reporting on them.

An elected leader
who reports a high number
of deaths
under his leadership
doesn’t get re-elected.

That’s true
of EVERY level
of leadership
and reporting.

This means…
if the Mayor reports
her numbers
to the Governor
and the Governor
reports her numbers
to the President
and the President
reports his numbers
to the press,
EVERY level of reporting
has the lowest number
possible.
The understatement
of the numbers
has compounded.

The reported numbers are
very much on the low side.

The conspiracy theorists
are, unfortunately, wrong.
The numbers reported
aren’t inflated.
They are understated.

When you make your decisions
about when and how to reopen
any physical stores or offices,
take that knowledge
in consideration.

Be safe out there.