Decision Making And Worst Case

One of the things
I always do
when I’m making a decision
is look at worst case.

Take global warming,
for example.

There are two very different assumptions
we can make about global warming.

Assumption #1:
Global Warming is real.
Decision:
We take action now,
switching from non-renewable energy
to clean renewable energy.
Worst Case Scenario:
Global Warming is a hoax.
Results of Decision
Under Worst Case Scenario
:
We incur costs early
as we switch to renewable energy
now
vs switching when
oil, coal, and gas reserves run out.
Clean air.

Vs

Assumption #2:
Global Warming is a hoax.
Decision:
We do nothing differently.
Worst Case Scenario:
Global Warming is real.
Results of Decision
Under Worst Case Scenario
:
We all die.

When we look at
the worst case scenarios
for this example,
the right decision is clear.

Some business decisions
are as clear.
Some aren’t.
All benefit
from this type of examination.

Before finalizing a decision,
ask yourself,
‘What is the worst case scenario?’