Forecasting The Future

A decade or so ago,
an expert
gave readers his best guess
about what the future would look like.

He predicted the death of books
(both print and ebooks),
thinking that,
with the internet,
storytelling would shift
to movies, TV shows, vlogs, etc.

He also predicted
that, with the huge increase
in the number of channels
available
and splitting of our attention spans
between modes of media,
there wouldn’t be a Seinfeld phenomenon.
We wouldn’t all be watching
the same shows,
the same movies,
get the same cultural references.

Today, one of the biggest companies
in the world
is an online bookstore (Amazon),
and almost everyone in the U.S.
knows at least one reference
from Game of Thrones,
a book-based TV show
(usually that reference is
‘Winter is Coming’).

You can’t predict the future.
Build your business
on your best guess for the future
and then adjust for reality.